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Disclaimer: This isn’t funding recommendation, PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!!
For all readers that discovered my SFS write-up from February as too thrilling, I’ve excellent news: I’ve discovered a inventory that appears not less than as boring as SFS, perhaps much more so: Logistec, a maritime terminal operator from Canada.
Background/Intro:
That is the primary funding concept that I initially discovered on Twitter, an enormous Hat tip to Sutje who introduced this up on my radar and naturally to the creator of the unique write-up “Wintergem Shares”. The Wintergem Substack has a 3 half write-up that I can solely suggest to learn first:
Half 1 – Deep Dive Marine Section
Half 2 – Deep Dive Environmental Section
Half 3 – Is Logistec a compounder
Wintergem has additionally a latest replace on Logistec’s lately launched 2022 report.
On this submit, I’ll simply deal with facets {that a} discovered particularly attention-grabbing on prime of the wonderful Wintergem write up.
To summarize Logistec’s enterprise in my very own phrases:
Logistec, a Canadian firm based mostly in Toronto, operates two divisions. The bigger one known as “Maritime companies” and primarily contains numerous North American maritime terminals, that function something from containers to bulk and even “break bulk” cargo. In considered one of their earlier annual reportss they describe the principle cargo varieties as follows: “Cargoes dealt with sometimes encompass forest merchandise, metals, dry bulk, fruit, grain and bagged cargoes, containers, common and undertaking cargoes”
The second division which is smaller and likewise much less proitable is Environmental companies, whcih contains a nuber of companies that provide totally different environmental companies like cleansing up hazardous waste or fixing water piping programs.
“Factsheet”
Listed below are some figures that I discovered attention-grabbing:
Maritime companies:
To my understanding, their ports largely cater to the North American financial system and are much less depending on worldwide commerce (Asia, or Europe) except the Tremont Joint Enterprise. Typical cargo varieties are for example wooden pellets, grain (Bulk) or elements for wind generators (break Bulk). This can be a image of a typical bulk terminal:
Ports/terminals are thought of to be a really enticing asset class particularly for long run buyers corresponding to pension funds. Ports of America, a big, unlisted Port operator for example was purchased in 2021 by a Canadian Pension fund for ~4 bn uSD. The concept behind that is that ports are very sturdy belongings which have pure moats and are in a position to present secure long run “actual returns” for buyers. The maritime companies companies is the core enterprise of Logistec.
Because of the Northern location of most of the ports, the enterprise is seasonal with precise losses within the Winter season (first quarter) when the large Northern inland rivers and arctic waters are frozen. Right here is the map as of 2022 (orange dots are terminals):
One attention-grabbing a part of the Maritime servic is a minority (49%) JV participation in a bigger conatainer terminal in Montreal (“Termont”), extra on this later.
Environmental companies:
This segement is the youthful devision and was construct by a sequence of acquistions. One among theri most important merchandise can “improve” lead water pipes by coating them from the within. Lead water pipes are an enormous drawback in sure areas of the US. One other attention-grabbing exercise is the removing of PFAS or “without end chemical substances” from soil. Total, this section has been rising properly prior to now however appears to have extra of a “giant undertaking” character which makes it much less predictable.
Long run monitor report:
One of many issues that truly pulled me in direction of the corporate was the truth that they challenge this 54 yr chart of gross sales and income on their web site (till 2021):
That development was achieved each, by natural development but in addition through acquisitions. Logistec retains most of their income as a way to develop their enterprise. Over the previous 10 years, they managed to develop EPS by ~13% p.a.
Wanting again, the decline in revenue in 2016 was primarily attributed to low commodity costs within the mining sector which appears to be a significant factor for his or her maritime section.
Share value
What I discover attention-grabbing taking a look at the long run inventory chart ist the actual fact, that for some purpose, the share value went up ~4x from 2013 to 2015 and since then went sideways regardless of the very constructive fundametnal developement:
Buyers who purchased into Logistec in 2014 oder 2015 earned mainly nothing since then because the dividend has been fairly low.
Administration:
Madeleine Paquin, the daughter of the founder joined the corporate in 1984 took over as CEO in 1996 when she was 33 years outdated, so she is now 59 years outdated which suggests in some unspecified time in the future in time, there is likely to be a succession subject. The present administration group exhibits no different member of the family as managers, her two sisters are a part of the Supervisory board however have been energetic within the firm earlier than, however in much less senior roles.
Compensation for administration has elevated considerably in 2022 however remains to be OK for a North American firm
Sadly I didn’t discover a extra detailed cut up on salaries. I assume, the 9 mn covers the managment group as introduced on the net web page.
Total, I like the mix of household possession and administration. Ms. Paquin appears to be very competent and beneath her management, the corporate has roughly 10x prime line and income.
Share construction: A/B construction
Under is an summary of Logistec’s share construction which consists of ~7,4 mn Class A shares and 5,7 mn B shares. The A shares, that are held largely by the three Paquin sisters, have 30 votes, the B-shares nevertheless have a proper to 1,1x the A shares dividend and a tag-along proper within the case of an organization sale-
The B shares do have a dividend choice over the A shares. Sumanic is the holding of the three sisters, every sisters holds 1/3 ofthe shares.
Professional’s & Cons
Primarily based on the Wintergem write-up and my very own analysis, as at all times a fast abstract of stuff that I like and stuff that I like much less:
I like:
+ household owned, household run + long run development path with two “Platforms” to deploy capital+ low-cost in absolute and relative phrases (“Additional asset”).+ extra imply reversal potential (margins, a number of)+ Publicity to attention-grabbing secotors (wind business, biomass, without end chemical substances)+ probably good Portfolio diversification (Canada, logistics)
Not so good
capital intensive
debt (not extreme however nonetheless)
cyclical publicity particularly within the Environmental division, commodities publicity within the maritime section
probably much less enticing E&A section
succession subject in 5-10 (?) years
A/B share construction (nevertheless much like Alimentation Couche-Tard)
Why is the inventory low-cost ?
As at all times, it is very important not less than attempt suppose aboutwhy a inventory is reasonable. That is what I got here up with:
A/B share construction (Tremendous voting) could possibly be a difficulty for some buyers
there’s a sure outcome volatility, particularly within the Environmental section
Capital intensive enterprise
It’s not a pure play (terminals)
rising Rates of interest (infrastructure)
zero analyst protection
little freefloat, inventory is kind of illiquid
low dividend yield particularly for infrastructure. Typical infrastructure buyers need yield, not development
no direct catalyst
P&L not straightforward to learn (JVs, “Additional belongings”)
Total there appear to be fairly a couple of explanation why the inventory low-cost. However after all, Canada is way away and I may need missed another causes.
Valuation:
Prior to now, with decrease rates of interest, ports have been valued fairly excessive. This can be a slide that exhibits some M&A transaction within the ports sector within the yr 2019 with respective EV/EBITDA mutliples which might be generally used because the valuation measure for infrastructure belongings:
Again then, valuation ranges for Terminal/port belongings have been somwhere between 13-20x EV/EBITDA, which could possibly be a, little bit decrease now ith larger rates of interest.
If we have a look at our “reality sheet” once more, we will see that Logistec trades far beneath this ranges however has traded a lot larger traditionally:
To be clear: I might not make investments into Logstec simply as a “imply reversion” play, nevertheless it exhibits that in historic phrases, the present valuation seems low-cost.
“Additional Asset”: Tremont Terminal
Now we have to lastly deal with the “further Asset”: Logistec owns a 49% stake in a JV referred to as TERMONT which is a container terminal in Montreal and handles enterprise on a long run contract with the world’s largest container shipper MSC. In 2022, dividend earnings from this JV has been 15 mn USD, the underlying revenue barely decrease. They appear to have doubled the capability over the latest years which explains the rise in income (from 2,5 mn in 2016 to 13,6 mn in 2022=.
When evaluating Logistec’s valuation at an EV/EBIT or EV/EBITDA foundation, which we did above, this revenue stream isn’t included because it solely enters the P&L within the “I” part.
So when making EV/EBITDA comparisons, this worth ought to be subtracted from the EV. Why ? As a result of on might merely promote this asset for money and EBITDA and EBIT wouldn’t change, however EV would lower by the money obtained.
What’s the JV stake price ? If we use Logistec’s P/E of ~11, we’d provide you with one thing like 140 mn CAD, which I believe is a really conservative estimate for a container terminal on a long run contract.
That is how valuation seems if we regulate this asset:
So based mostly on on the adjustment, EV/EBITDA is a full poin decrease, EV/EBIT nearly 2 factors.
I additionally compiled an inventory of worldwide listed port operators, though because the outcomes present, this can be a very various lot and port belongings are typically very particular person belongings:
If I account for the “non pure play standing” and assume ” the common 10xEV/EBITDA valuation of those friends, Logistec ought to be roughly price 105 CAD per share based mostly on 2022 outcomes, nevertheless as I discussed above, this alone can be not sufficient.
What sort of development will be anticipated ?
Logistec has grown as talked about by 10-15% p.a. over a really very long time, be reinvesting most of its money into natural and inorganic development. Only in the near past, they have been in a position to purchase a considerable competitor referred to as Federal Marine Terminals which was doing round 116 mn CAD in gross sales in 2022 . This alone will add 11 new Terminals and develop general gross sales by greater than 10%. I don’t know what number of different mid measurement operators in that space exist however to me it seems like that they’ve some runway to develop within the maritime sector.
The environmental section is harder to evaluate, however in idea there ought to be ample development alternatives too.
Due to this fact I believe it’s honest to imagine the historic development fee of 10-15% as a superb estimate for the subsequent 5-10 years as properly.
At a present dividend yield of 1%, this is able to indicate a complete return of 11-16% p.a. with out assuming any a number of growth, which I believe is a extremely good return/danger proposition and a superb match for my boring portfolio.
Abstract:
Logistec ticks lots of my examine bins, like having a strong however boring enterprise mannequin, a long run orientation, Household possession, good development alternatives and a really reasonable valuation . Though there’s clearly no quick time period catalyst, I do suppose that over a time-frame of 3-5+ years there’s a good probability of an honest return in the event that they proceed to execute like they did prior to now.
As that is Canada, which is way away and I’m not overly aware of the business, I made a decision to purchase “solely” a 3% place at this stage at a mean value of 44 CAD/share. To be trustworthy, except Alimentation Couche-Tard, my “far-off” investments to date haven’t been too profitable and embrace a couple of “corridor of disgrace” investments like Cras.com and Silver Chef.
The financing comes largely from promoting some extra Meier & Tobler and dividends (Photo voltaic).
Disclaimer: This isn’t funding recommendation. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
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